How come Abalos and company can't see this?
AS I WRECK THIS CHAIR By William M. Esposo
The Philippine Star 2007-07-10
Our great national tragedy is that we are a great people who just happen to be very badly led. The Filipino leadership failure stems mainly from two factors: corruption and lack of inspiration.

It’s more tragic when we find ourselves being led by those who are not only dense but also thoroughly corrupt.

A good case in point of how dense (or opting to be dense) some Filipino public officials are is to compare Comelec (Commission on Elections) Chairman Ben Abalos and his Commissioners to this Chair Wrecker reader — Abel Manliclic — who e-mailed me and shared his insights on statistical improbabilities of the controversial Maguindanao count.

Abel wrote: "To better understand the "statistical improbability" of the Maguindanao election results for senators:

BUKIDNON (Zubiri’s bailiwick)

Zubiri led Pimentel by 189,342 votes in a province with 601,629 registered voters, out of which 456,407 voters voted. Voter turn-out was 75.86%.

Zubiri got 328,970 votes in the province, for a "vote conversion rate" of 54.68% (of the total number of registered voters).

Zubiri’s vote-lead over Pimentel translates to approximately 31,504 votes for every 100,000 registered voters. (189,342 divided by 6.01)

If Bukidnon had been the size of Maguindanao (voting strength of 212,921), then Zubiri would only be leading Pimentel by approximately 66,788 votes only.

(The second Provincial Certificate of Canvass of Maguindanao gives Zubiri 195,823 votes and Pimentel 67,111 votes for a Zubiri lead of an overwhelming 128,712 votes. NOTE: There are still 38 precincts with around 7,600 votes not included in the Maguindanao results.)

CEBU (The Province of Cebu is assumed to be Team Unity's/the Administration’s bailiwick)

Zubiri led Pimentel by 181,225 votes in a province with 1,603,345 registered voters, out of which 1,267,125 voters voted. Voter turn-out was 79.03%.

Zubiri got 480,518 votes in the province, for a "vote conversion rate"of 29.97% (of the total number of registered voters).

Zubiri's vote-lead over Pimentel translates to approximately 11,305 votes for every 100,000 registered voters. (181,225 divided by 16.03)

If Cebu had been the size of Maguindanao (voting strength of 212,921), then Zubiri would be leading Pimentel by approximately 24,080 votes only.

(The second Provincial Certificate of Canvass of Maguindanao gives Zubiri 195,823 votes and Pimentel 67,111 votes for a Zubiri lead of an overwhelming 128,712 votes.)

BOHOL (Also assumed to be Team Unity's/ the Administration’s bailiwick)

Zubiri led Pimentel by 75,745 votes in a province with 661,015 registered voters, out of which 545,800 voters voted (per COMELEC records). Voter turn-out was 82.57%.

Zubiri got 214,166 votes in the province, for a "vote conversion rate" of 32.40% (of the total number of registered voters).

Zubiri’s vote-lead over Pimentel translates to approximately 11,459 votes for every 100,000 registered voters. (75,745 divided by 6.61)

If Bohol had been the size of Maguindanao (voting strength of 212,921), then Zubiri would be leading Pimentel by approximately 24,293 votes only.

(The second Provincial Certificate of Canvass of Maguindanao gives Zubiri 195,823 votes and Pimentel 67,111 votes for a Zubiri lead of an overwhelming 128,712 votes.)

PAMPANGA (Also Team Unity’s/the Administration’s bailiwick)

Zubiri led Pimentel by 244,411 votes in a province with 1,128,411 registered voters, out of which 779,133 voters voted (per COMELEC records). Voter turn-out was 69.05%.

Zubiri got 398,898 votes in the province, for a “vote conversion rate” of 35.35% (of the total number of registered voters).

Zubiri’s vote-lead over Pimentel translates to approximately 21,668 votes for every 100,000 registered voters. (244,411 divided by 11.28)

If Pampanga had been the size of Maguindanao (voting strength of 212,921), then Zubiri would be leading Pimentel by approximately 45,936 votes only.

(The second Provincial Certificate of Canvass of Maguindanao gives Zubiri 195,823 votes and Pimentel 67,111 votes for a Zubiri lead of an overwhelming 128,712 votes.)

MAGUINDANAO

Zubiri led Pimentel by 128,712 votes in a province with 212,921 registered voters. COMELEC did not give out data on total number of voters who voted and percentage of voter turn-out.

Zubiri got 195,823 votes in the province, for a "vote conversion rate"of 91.97% (of the total number of registered voters). [The actual conversion rate is higher because 38 precincts involving around 7,600 votes are still not included in the reported results!]

Maguindanao’s statistics, even if we assume it to be an Administration bailiwick, are simply too incredible to be believed!

It's a clear case of statistical improbability!" Abel concluded.

So, how come Ben Abalos and all those Comelec Commissioners can't see this? Maybe, it is what the Holy Book says: "None are so blind than those who refuse to see."


  Previous Columns:

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2013-03-31


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2013-03-28


Election lawyer: PCOS critics should put up or shut up
2013-03-26


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2013-03-24


A great disservice to P-Noy
2013-03-21


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