The recent exchange of artillery fire in the Yellow Sea between the armed forces of North Korea and South Korea caused Asian stocks to tumble and heightened fears that North Korea might recklessly instigate another US-China war, similar to what happened during the 1950s Korean War.
By now, many Chair Wrecker readers have realized why we have been raising the alarm for over three years now for Filipinos to watch intently the moves that the US has been making in Mindanao and against China. Three years ago, your Chair Wrecker felt like a Biblical Prophet, alone and unheeded, crying out in the wilderness.
Very few appreciated then the link that we established between the looming US-China conflict and that aborted MOA-AD (Memorandum of Agreement-Ancestral Domain) with the MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front). Fewer still appreciated our expose of the sinister US agenda in promoting a virtual Muslim State in Mindanao.
It’s hard not to appreciate at this point the reality of a US-China conflict. Many aspects of it are now being openly discussed in international media. The consistent demonizing of China by the US is a giveaway of their preparations for a conflict.
The question many folks ask your Chair Wrecker now is this what are the chances of a 21st century US-China War ever happening? Indeed, will these two nations really want to extend their present conflict which is basically economic, trade and geopolitical in nature to a theatre of war?
It is doubted if both the US and China will want a 21st century war. They know that war is costly, devastating as well as unpredictable. The Russian Tsar did not imagine that Japan could beat them in the Russo-Japanese War of the early 20th century. That Russian defeat created the first big crack and set the stage for the fall of the Romanov dynasty following Russian involvement in World War I.
In the 1960s and the 1970s, Vietnam was nothing militarily compared to China today but they defeated the US. The British, Russian and American empires all failed to win their wars in Afghanistan.
If you were the US, you would think twice before engaging China in a war. If the US could not beat China in the 1950s, during the Korean War, what makes them think that they can now defeat a more powerful China in the 21st century? Former National Security Adviser Victor Corpus wrote an excellent book America’s Dim Mak Points on how China will fight and win that war with the US.
It is doubted if China would want to engage the US in a war unless the armed conflict is really unavoidable. China is dominating the US in their present theatre of conflict which is trade, manufacturing and so forth. They would not want to deviate from where they are succeeding and enter a stage of conflict where the outcome is uncertain.
The West has a long tradition of using the hard brass knuckles to get what they want and deeply etched in Chinese memory are the experiences of the Opium War and the Boxer Rebellion. The Chinese philosophy centers on the SOFT APPROACH. A Chinese teacher will teach his pupil: “A rock is hard. Water is soft. But if water, which is soft, falls in droplets and consistently over the hard rock, the rock will eventually break.” Thus, we see the US and its allies invading Iraq which owns the third biggest oil reserve in the world while China prefers to use its economic muscle to try and corner African oil.
However, despite the lack of intention of two competing nations to go to war, history teaches us that war still manages to erupt. In 1940, neither the US nor the Japanese wanted to fight each other but it happened. In fact, many people here were so oblivious of the war clouds forming over the Pacific even during late 1941. Filipinos only woke up to the realization of a US-Japan War after Pearl Harbor was bombed.
Unforeseen developments, such as the June 28, 1914 assassination of Austria’s Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which triggered World War I, can cause unwanted wars. Economic depression, such as the global economic condition during the 1930s which preceded World War II, can lead nations to war. Escalation, such as what the US is doing now in Mindanao, can force China to go to war.
Several years ago, your Chair Wrecker took the late Press Secretary Serge Remonde to task for dismissing a near confrontation off the coast of Zambales between a Chinese submarine and a US cruiser as something that will not affect us because it happened in international waters. If that confrontation went ugly and the two nations went to war how could that incident not affect us?
If a US naval presence in our international waters can prod the Chinese to send their submarine here, make their presence felt in order to send a counter signal, imagine how China will react to the establishment of a US military offensive capability in Mindanao which China knows is going to be directed against them.
Shortly before he was assigned to a post in Washington, Victor Corpus and your Chair Wrecker were discussing the looming US-China conflict vis-à-vis the US Mindanao agenda. Vic warned that if the US military offensive capability is established in Mindanao, China may be forced to undertake a preemptive military strike similar to Japan’s bombing of Pearl Harbor. Victor Corpus has done extensive research on this subject matter. His assessment is not to be taken lightly.
A preemptive military strike by China will make the US react and how the US reacts will determine if all-out war, which will affect us Filipinos, will follow. If the preemptive strike is successful the US loses its military offensive capability in Mindanao the US could decide that they cannot engage China in war. Sans an offensive capability, the US could resort to other means of reprisal like a trade embargo, condemnation in the UN and so forth. All-out war could thus be averted.
However, if the US reacts to a China military preemptive strike the way that they had reacted when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, then Filipinos should start praying that the war will not involve the rest of our country where a US military capability has not been established. We should also start praying that the combatants will resist using nuclear weapons.
How can we prevent our involvement in this looming 21st century US-China War? The answer is simple. Do not allow the US to establish a military capability in our country.
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